United States Hydrogen Transportation Fuel Supply

Abstract The California experience has demonstrated the feasibility of enabling hydrogen (H2) refueling for fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), but FCEV adoption there remains less than 1%. FCEVs refuel in less than 5 minutes with water vapor as their only exhaust emission and are more energy efficient than internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Consequently, they represent potentially attractive alternatives to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and ICEVs, provided fuel costs are competitive. Rare access to H2 refueling limits this choice in the United States (US). This paper assesses the viability of supplying cost competitive H2 refueling at all locations in the contiguous US. An economic model integrates existing U.S. Department of Energy National Lab tools with data for U.S. states, counties, and municipalities to estimate levelized costs for H2 generation, transport, storage and refueling station costs. This paper will provide a methodology for estimating the competitive price of H2 in U.S. locations. A dashboard application models and evaluates the cost of H2 refueling at any location in the contiguous U.S. via either the existing natural gas infrastructure or the electric grid. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations provide risk and uncertainty assessments. The electric grid can supply H2 at any location with sufficient water. However, H2 generated from methane requires less water and is more energy efficient and cost effective wherever methane supply is available. Using the existing methane pipeline and storage infrastructure in the US, approximately 400 hydrogen hubs uniformly distributed every 40,000 square kilometers can profitably supply nearly all of the U.S. population with H2 at prices competitive with gasoline and diesel. Gradual repurposing of existing liquid fuel refueling stations for H2 refueling at an estimated capital investment of approximately $1 billion. H2 refueling using electrolysis would be at higher consumer price in the near term. With a total capital investment of ~$150 billion for steam methane reformed (SMR) H2 operating companies can reduce total CO2 emissions by 13% with a switch from gasoline and diesel to SMR H2 or 20% by switching to SMRCC H2 with an investment of ~$425 billion for SMRCC H2 technology. Mechanisms that make H2 attractive for transportation may also make it attractive for other industrial and commercial applications.