An Empirical Study of Container Transportation Price Volatility under Uncertainty Shocks Based on DCC-GARCH and SVAR Models

As a key link in international trade, the price volatility of container transportation has a profound impact on the global supply chain, and uncertainty shocks are one of the main causes of price volatility.With this topic, this paper measures the level of uncertainty at the policy level through the uncertainty index construction method, which lays the foundation for subsequent research.Dynamic correlation and impulse effect analyses of container transportation market prices under uncertainty shocks are conducted using DCC-GARCH and SVAR models.China's economic policy uncertainty index showed four stages of significant increase in 2001, 2008, 2015 and 2019.The overall price volatility of the container transportation market shows an upward trend, and in 2023, the transportation price is 23,835 yuan.Container transportation prices are affected by the uncertainty of China's economic policies as well as China's trade policies, with correlation coefficients ranging from -0.69 to 0.60.The influence of China's economic policy uncertainty index on container transportation price does not have a long time lag effect.