Past socio-political transitions away from coal and gas show challenges and opportunities ahead

Abstract Transitioning away from fossil fuels presents substantial challenges, given the growing mismatch between pledges submitted to international climate negotiations and the mitigation strategies that limit warming to below 1.5 °C or 2 °C presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. The scientific case for phasing out coal-fired electricity is clear, and many countries are progressing towards this. However, despite widespread concerns about risks and trade-offs, natural gas is often considered a bridge fuel, and there is currently no progress towards phasing down its capacity. Previous work on the political feasibility of coal phase-out only considered limited socio-political factors, missing the importance of governance quality and policies supporting the energy transition. There is even more limited understanding of factors associated with gas phase-down, while Europe and North America fall behind trajectories required to limit warming below 1.5 °C. We use multivariate regression and clustering analyses on over four decades of data to investigate the drivers and synergies of coal and gas transitions. This reveals opportunities to overcome fossil fuel lock-in through renewable energy expansion, energy policy reforms, and power market restructuring. Countries with greater reliance on fossil fuel infrastructure and workforce face additional difficulties in phase out. Social factors such as higher belief in climate change are positively linked with more ambitious coal phase-out efforts. However, disentangling these links for gas remains difficult given the limited historical evidence of phase-down progress. We identify four archetypes (Coal Reliance, Gas Reliance, Limited Policy, and Transition Underway) that illustrate different ways countries have transitioned from coal and gas over time. These provide blueprints for potential future transitions in other countries. Recognizing the diverse social, political, and institutional factors that shape transitions can inform the design of politically relevant future scenarios.