What determines provincial carbon emission reduction performance in China? A study on co-movement effect based on QCA

Provincial carbon emission reduction performance (CERP) evaluation is crucial for China's climate change mitigation efforts. However, existing research lacks an in-depth exploration of the conditions and mechanisms enhancing provincial CERP. This study evaluates provincial CERP during the 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period in China using a comprehensive evaluation method and identifies four antecedent conditions influencing CERP based on provincial policy practices: industrial structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement, energy structure optimization, and supporting mechanisms enhancement. Using the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method, this study reveals the complex causal mechanisms driving provincial CERP: 1) single conditions are insufficient to determine high/low CERP, as it results from the co-movement of multiple conditions; 2) there are multiple pathways to achieve high CERP, each requiring the interaction of multiple conditions; 3) different types of provinces have different pathways to high CERP. Specifically, resource-abundant provinces have two pathways to high CERP, where substantial optimization of energy structure is necessary. Resource-lacking provinces have three pathways to high CERP, where substantial improvement in energy efficiency is necessary; and 4) multiple pathways leading to low CERP, all asymmetrically related to those for high CERP. These findings highlight varied pathways to high CERP, offering tailored emission reduction strategies for different provinces.