Interactions of land use, land cover, and climate change: A case study of Raichur District, Karnataka, India

The interplay between land use, climate and their interactions operates across different scales, posing challenges to effective management. Yet, due to a lack of historical land-use data covering the timescales over which anthropogenic climate change and its effects have manifested, investigations of climate and land-use interactions are often limited to space-for-time substitution. This study assessed land use, land cover (LULC), and climate change interaction from 1985 to 2023 in the Raichur district, India. We used the U.S. Geological Survey Landsat 5, 7, and 8 multi-spectral data for land cover analysis, while climate data from the India Meteorological Department were utilised for historical climate change analysis. Additionally, future climate projection based on the CMIP6 General Circulation Model under the extreme socio-economic scenario of ssp585 served as the basis for future climate extreme events using standard precipitation and evapotranspiration index. The Landsat images were classified into different major LULC classes, and the area extent of each LULC was assessed. The results show that forest cover decreased, and the area of built-up land increased. The extent of ​​fallow land also reduced, while the water areas had decreased straightforwardly. Climate analysis shows a significant variation in annual rainfall, with 2018 recording the lowest rainfall and 2020 recording the highest. Temperature analysis shows a warming trend with both maximum and average temperature demonstrating a statistically significant increase, with p-values of 0.05 and 0.01, respectively. The analysis of drought severity using SPI and SPEI identified 27 and 23 drought events, respectively. The correlation analysis between LULC and climate variables revealed that cropland, built-up areas, mixed forests, shrublands, wastelands, and water bodies positively correlate to annual rainfall. The temperature in the study area is negatively correlated with mixed forest, cropland, wasteland, and water bodies. The results from this study stipulate valuable insights into the region's dynamic changes in LULC and climate conditions, offering essential input for sustainable land use planning and climate adaptation measures.