Modeling and analysis of the dynamic mechanism of rumor propagation considering the process of rumor refuting

The boost of rumor spreading by the Internet has caused a series of social problems. Refuting the rumor timely can alleviate the harm caused by rumor dissemination. To investigate the propagation mechanism of rumor affected by rumor refuting on online social platforms, we propose the Susceptible-Infective-Remover-Debunker-Remover (SIRDR) model to describe the propagation dynamics of rumor and rumor refutation. To conform closely to the actual scenarios of rumor dissemination, we consider a refined division of the population involved in propagation and introduce an information exposure attractiveness index and forgetting mechanisms to characterize individual spreading behavior. We then investigate the extent to which the suppression of rumor dissemination by refuting rumors at different spreading stages. The proposed model is validated by the analysis of real datasets collected from Sina Weibo and Twitter. The R-squared values of data 1 are 0.947 and 0.985, the R-squared values of data 2 are 0.993 and 0.976, while the R-squared values of data 3 are 0.948 and 0.956, indicating that our model is very consistent with the real rumor propagation process. Especially, we find out that the suppression effect of rumor refutation on rumor propagation varies greatly with its release time. Our work may offer theoretical support for rumors governance in cyberspace. • A refined division of propagation population are considered in the modeling. • The model with an exposure index and forgetting mechanism is proposed. • Our model fits well the realistic data collected from online social platforms. • The suppression effect of rumor refutation varies greatly with its release time.