A Bayesian inference-based model for evaluating the effect of ecological education in the process of study tour activities in national parks

In recent years, the development of study activities is in full swing.In order to study the eco-education effect in national park study activities, this paper introduces Bayesian network and constructs an ecoeducation effect assessment model based on Bayesian inference.In the comparison of the absolute error of the assessment value with other assessment models, the assessment accuracy of the Bayesian inference assessment model in this paper is obtained.After constructing the ecological education effect assessment index system and completing the assignment, the level of ecological education that should be achieved in the national park study activities is obtained through Bayesian inference diagnosis.Finally, according to the results of education effect assessment, the probability of each indicator being in various states is obtained by simulation using Monte Carlo method.The mean absolute error of the Bayesian assessment model is 0.26 points, which is smaller than other comparative assessment models and has the highest assessment accuracy.The model's ecosystem principles, anthropogenic intervention impacts, ecological disasters and ecological protection measures should be guaranteed to reach 75.6, 64.8, 67.9 and 69.4.The ecological operation rules (59.479.8),climate change (50.670.2),biodiversity reduction (52.269.8),and pollution prevention and control (56.478.3)have the highest accuracy for the ecosystem principle, anthropogenic intervention impacts, ecological disasters and ecological protection measures, respectively., anthropogenic intervention effects, ecological disasters and ecological conservation measures, and ecological education effects had the greatest impact.The overall score of ecological education effect was 84.1, and the scores of ecosystem principle, human intervention impact, ecological disaster and ecological protection measures were 83.8, 85.2, 83.0 and 84.2.