The industrial decarbonization paradigm: Carbon lock-in or path renewal in the United Kingdom?

Since 2017, industrial policies in the United Kingdom have prioritized revitalizing industrial clusters through subsidies for low-carbon technologies and infrastructure. This study introduces the Industrial Decarbonization Paradigm (IDP) to examine dominant technological designs, policy-driven technological channeling, industrial regimes, and the persistence of path dependence across three major industrial clusters. Drawing on 65 semi-structured interviews, 30 industrial site visits, and extensive analyses of trade and policy documents, the findings reveal significant risks of path dependence and carbon lock-in due to dominant designs of industrial decarbonization technologies, as well as central government-led technological channeling. The research identifies opportunities to mitigate these risks through policies that foster bottom-up innovation and reduce reliance on top-down technological approaches. The study highlights the need for adaptive, decentralized strategies to limit the potential for carbon lock-in and achieve sustainable industrial transformation.