Beyond the initial boom: Energy transitions can improve rural development indicators

Rural decline, in the form of loss of youth, reduced human capital and poverty remains a key issue for studies of rural systems. The strategies for mitigating and reversing rural decline are not sufficiently understood. Including, how transitions in the global energy system are impacting rural economies and communities, who commonly host the industries and infrastructure. This study extends a previous assessment of the first ten years of an onshore gas industry's growth in rural Australia by analysing the second decade of operations and socio-economic change. The original quasi-experimental design was followed to examine changes in rural decline indicators—migration, education levels, and poverty—across areas with and without onshore gas activity. Socio-economic data were sourced from the Australian Census for 2011, 2016 and 2021. Public government data of location and number of onshore gas wells were used to distinguish regions with, or without onshore gas activity. Overall, in regions with onshore gas activity, greater mitigation of rural decline was observed. Greater inward migration, educational attainment, and less poverty. Inward migration included more older young adults, females and with bachelor's degrees. These second decade observations were consistent with the earlier decade. Though not as positive, as the first decade consisted of the industry's initial boom in construction for resource extraction, logistics and employee housing. This evaluation of the second decade extends the literature with empirical evidence of local rural impacts from the global energy transition. Including, timely insight into the plausibility of improving rural decline and the utility of monitoring the socio-economic indicators over an extended time as part of development policy. • Empirical evidence of how the global energy transition can mitigate rural decline. • Compared rural regions with or without onshore gas development over a decade. • Regions with: higher in-migration, education levels, and some poverty reduction. • Especially older young adults, females, and females with bachelor's degrees. • Trends consistent with, but lesser than in the initial decade, the early boom.