Evaluating Pavement Deterioration Rates Due to Flooding Events Using Explainable AI

Flooding can damage pavement infrastructure significantly, causing both immediate and long-term structural and functional issues. This research investigates how flooding events affect pavement deterioration, specifically focusing on measuring pavement roughness by the International Roughness Index (IRI). To quantify these effects, we utilized 20 years of pavement condition data from TxDOT’s PMIS database, which is integrated with flood event data, including duration and spatial extent. Statistical analyses were performed to compare IRI values before and after flooding and to calculate the deterioration rates influenced by flood exposure. Moreover, we applied explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques, such as Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), to assess the impact of flooding on pavement performance. The results demonstrate that flood-affected pavements experience a more rapid increase in roughness compared to non-flooded sections. These findings emphasize the need for proactive flood mitigation strategies, including improved drainage systems, flood-resistant materials, and preventative maintenance, to enhance pavement resilience in vulnerable regions.