Dealing with Probability Statistics Prediction on Sporting Events

Predicting and modeling sports events has always been one of the main applications of probability and statistics. From analyzing the likelihood of a team's victory based on historical performance data can be used to estimate the probability of a particular player scoring a goal. This paper focuses on the practical use of probability in football matches, summarizing several innovative prediction models based on classical probability distributions. It demonstrates the accuracy of the bivariate Poisson distribution model in predicting football scores, especially the number of draws through examples. And visually illustrate the precise capture of goals and winning moments in football matches by the In-game win probability model which based on Bayesian statistical framework. The paper also introduces the broad integration prospects of probability in combination with other disciplines in sports events. These interdisciplinary approaches have significant implications for not only helps optimize team organization and management like tactical improvement and risk control, but also plays a key role in promoting the development of related industries such as sports betting and media broadcasting.