ESG Rating Divergence and Analysts Earnings Forecast Divergence-Analysis Based on Information Asymmetry

ESG, as a novel non-financial indicator, has emerged as a pivotal focus in global capital markets. Nevertheless, challenges stemming from ESG rating divergence are increasingly significant. Utilizing data from A-share companies from (20092023), this study investigates how ESG rating divergence influences analysts' earnings forecast divergence. Results indicate that ESG rating divergence markedly intensifies analysts' earnings forecast divergence, with information asymmetry acting as a mediating factor to amplify this effect. However, the increase in corporate information transparency and the deepening of digital transformation can effectively weaken the negative effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger effects in low-competition industries, heavily polluting firms, and cost leadership enterprises. The study extends the ESG rating divergence impact to analysts' behavior, emphasizing the importance of corporate information transparency construction and digital transformation to optimize the ESG rating system. The findings enrich the literature on the factors influencing analysts' earnings forecast divergence and provide a theoretical basis for differentiated ESG regulation.