DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY SYSTEM MODELING IN EAST KALIMANTAN'S HOUSEHOLD SECTOR WITH BOTTOM-UP APPROACH FOR ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST IN 2060

The household sector is an energy user sector greatly influenced by population and economic factors, which are 2 (two) key variables in energy consumption projections. East Kalimantan was selected as the location for the Nusantara Capital City through Law Number 3 of 2022, which will certainly impact the growth of household energy consumption. Meanwhile, the cooking and electricity needs are dominated by fossil fuels. Energy system modeling is needed to design appropriate energy policies, avoid dependence on fossil fuels, and control CO2 emissions in the future. For this reason, this research aims to forecast the household's energy demand until the year 2060 through several scenarios. Energy demand forecasting with a bottom-up approach, which is dynamically linked to multiple variables, is achievable through system dynamics due to essential feedback loops, delays, and interactions required for an energy system. The results of the forecast in 2060 with the BaU scenario is 31,583 million BOE, resulting in emissions of 8,018 million tons; the IKN scenario estimates 38,5 million BOE and emissions of 9,7 million tons, while the LC scenario produces emissions of 4,3 million tons