Carbon Emission Prediction Following Pinus koraiensis Plantation Surface Fuel Combustion Based on Carbon Consumption Analysis

The accurate measurement of surface fire carbon emissions is critical for assessing their impact on carbon sinks and role in climate change. This study aims to investigate the relationships between surface fire behaviour characteristics and carbon consumption for Pinus koraiensis plantation forests and construct a carbon consumption prediction model. A total of 288 combustion experiments were conducted on a laboratory burning bed using varying fuel loads, moisture contents, and slope conditions, with measurements taken of surface fire behaviour characteristics and the carbon content of combustion ash. The Byram fireline intensity model was reintegrated to build a predictive model for fuel combustion carbon consumption, and the model parameters were adjusted based on the results of the combustion experiments. The direct use of the Byram fireline intensity model parameters predicted surface fire carbon consumption in Pinus koraiensis plantation forests with significant errors (R2 = 0.75; MAE = 0.197 kg m−2; MRE = 66.76%). After the parameters were modified using the combustion experiment data, the new model yielded R2 = 0.75, MAE = 0.087 kg m−2, and MRE = 28.28%. This study significantly improved the accuracy of the new model in predicting the carbon consumption of surface fuel combustion in Pinus koraiensis plantation forests.