Rural Resilience Evaluation and Risk Governance in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River, Northwest China: An Empirical Analysis from Ganzhou District, a Typical Irrigated Agricultural Area

Conducting research on the evaluation of rural resilience and risk governance strategies in the middle reaches of the Heihe River can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of rural areas in the inland river basins of arid regions. Affected by water resource constraints, the expansion of artificial oases, and excessive exploitation of groundwater, the rural areas in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, the second largest inland river in the arid region of northwest China, are confronted with prominent contradictions in the human-land relationship and urgently need to enhance their ability to cope with risks. Based on the remote sensing data of land use and major socio-economic data, this study draws on the theory of landscape ecology to construct a disturbance-resistance-adaptability evaluation system. Taking Ganzhou District, a typical irrigated agricultural area, as a case study, the study uses the entropy weight method, resilience change rate, and obstacle degree model to analyze the rural resilience level and its changing characteristics from 1990 to 2020, identifies the key obstacle factors affecting the development of rural resilience, and proposes risk governance strategies accordingly. Main conclusions: (1) The overall rural resilience index is relatively low, showing significant spatial disparities. Towns with well-developed multifunctional agriculture, nature reserves, and ecological-cultural control lines have higher resilience indices. (2) The change rate of the rural resilience index demonstrates phase heterogeneity, generally undergoing a “relative stability-increase-decrease” process, and forming a differentiation pattern of “decrease in the north and increase in the south”. (3) Internal risks to rural resilience development in the Ganzhou District mainly stem from low economic efficiency, fragile ecological environment, and unstable landscape patterns, among which efficiency-dominant and landscape-stability obstacle factors have a broader impact scope, while habitat resistance-type obstacle factors are mainly concentrated in the western part and suburban areas. Enhancing the benefits of water and soil resource utilization, strengthening habitat resistance, and stabilizing landscape patterns are key strategies for current-stage rural resilience governance in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. This study aims to optimize the human-land relationship in the rural areas of the middle reaches of the Heihe River.