Predicting the Deviation from the Standard Study Period and Dropout Intentions Through Depression Severity and Social Integration Among University Students in Germany: A Longitudinal Analysis

Mental health problems among university students have become a growing concern for higher education institutions. Students experiencing mental health issues, with depression being the most prevalent disorder, tend to take longer to graduate and have a higher risk of dropping out of university. This study examines the predictive values of depression severity (Patient Health Questionnaire Depression-PHQ-9), use of psychosocial counseling, and social integration on the deviation from the standard study period and dropout intentions. A total of 3300 students at the University of Kassel, Germany were surveyed at baseline in March 2022; 1744 students provided an email address and gave permission to contact them individually for the follow-up survey in March 2023. After eliminating dropouts and questionnaires with a lot of missing values, the final sample consisted of 500 students who participated at both time points. Longitudinal data were used for descriptive, correlational, and multiple linear regression analyses. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed a significant adverse predictive value of the PHQ-9 (β = -0.082; <i>p</i> < 0.05) on the deviation from the standard study period. The analyses found significant positive predictive values of the PHQ-9 (β = 0.190; <i>p</i> < 0.001) and examination grades (β = 0.108, <i>p</i> < 0.05) on dropout intentions. Furthermore, this study could not confirm significant predictive values of difficulties with interaction with fellow students and lecturers on dropout intentions. The results highlight the role of health promotion, psychosocial counseling, and social networks for students with depressive symptoms. Concluding, a networked approach at universities involving students, lecturers, counseling services, and health management is recommended.