Environmental vulnerability and conflict occurrence are tightly related

Conflict and environmental risks are simultaneously on the rise globally, and these two phenomena often interact both in cause and consequence. Findings from recent studies suggest that ecological sustainability and peace are positively correlated. Here we replicate approaches by previous studies and then re-test the relationship. We deploy correlation and general linear modeling approaches to analyze the direction and strength over time of multiple global conflict, peace and fundamental ecological indicator datasets at the country-level for the period 2010–2022. Our results indicate that peace and ecological sustainability are inversely related. In general, our results indicate that the countries experiencing the highest rates of peace are those that are the least ecologically sustainable, while the countries most vulnerable to environmental risks and experiencing conflict are those countries contributing the least to ecological sustainability issues through their consumption. Understanding and attending to this paradox is essential to ensuring global peace and sustainability in an increasingly conflicted world. Countries least responsible for anthropogenic climate change, emitting or consuming at ecologically sustainable levels, are most exposed to environmental risks and conflict, according to an analysis of greenhouse gas emissions, domestic footprint data and peace indicators over 2010–2022.