Potential Distribution of Tribe Erythroneurini in China Based on the R-Optimized MaxEnt Model, with Implications for Management

This study examines the distribution dynamics of the tribe Erythroneurini, a group of economically significant leafhoppers in China that pose threats to crops through sap feeding and virus transmission, while also serving as valuable ecological indicators due to their sensitivity to environmental changes. Through a systematic evaluation of 12 species distribution models (SDMs), we ultimately selected the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model for predicting species distributions. The R-optimized MaxEnt model incorporated 11 environmental variables and 218 occurrence records to assess habitat suitability under historical, current, and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The model was configured with LQP features and a default regularization multiplier value of 1. Results reveal that temperature (BIO6, BIO2, BIO4) and precipitation (BIO12) are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with tropical and subtropical regions identified as the most favorable. Future projections indicate a complex pattern of habitat contraction and expansion, with a notable northward shift toward higher latitudes under climate change. These findings highlight the profound impact of climate change on Erythroneurini distribution, underscoring the need for proactive management. Implementing long-term monitoring and targeted control in vulnerable regions mitigates ecological and agricultural risks, supporting sustainable pest management and fostering the integration of ecological conservation with agricultural development.