Modeling Reemergence of Vaccine-Eliminated Infectious Diseases Under Declining Vaccination in the US

Based on estimates from this modeling study, declining childhood vaccination rates will increase the frequency and size of outbreaks of previously eliminated vaccine-preventable infections, eventually leading to their return to endemic levels. The timing and critical threshold for returning to endemicity will differ substantially by disease, with measles likely to be the first to return to endemic levels and may occur even under current vaccination levels without improved vaccine coverage and public health response. These findings support the need to continue routine childhood vaccination at high coverage to prevent resurgence of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases in the US.