Leveraging value-based pathways for Indigenous food security through participatory scenario planning: A case study from St. Paul Island, Alaska, USA

Arctic Indigenous food systems face significant pressure, necessitating transformative changes to ensure food security. Given that Arctic Indigenous communities’ food security is disproportionally being affected by global change, it is important that they develop action plans focused on local agency to meet the challenges they face and leverage food system futures that align with local values. We employ a co-produced participatory scenario planning (PSP) approach that combines PSP with positive scenarios from seeds, leverage points (LP), and intergenerational dialogue to challenge traditional future prospects that tend to be pessimistic and support food security for the Aleut Community of St. Paul Island (ACSPI). Through focus groups, a PSP workshop, and a pathways workshop, this study (i) mobilizes intergenerational community values, develops (ii) four positive future scenarios grounded in these values, and (iii) five pathways to achieve a shared vision of the future food system, and (iv) identifies effective LP for real-world change. The community's shared vision represents a diverse, sovereign local food system rooted in Unangax̂ values. Pathways toward this vision include interventions for local capacity building, economic diversification, local agency, subsistence lifestyles, and community cohesion and health. The paper highlights the transformative potential of co-produced PSP in supporting Arctic Indigenous communities in envisioning and achieving sustainable futures. • Co-produced community vision and pathways for Indigenous local food system identified. • Indigenous food sovereignty and cultural revitalization central to food system vision. • Strategic pathways foster capacity, diversity, agency, subsistence, cohesion. • Community interventions link shallow and deep system levels for transformative change. • Recognizing cross-level interactions of interventions is key to leveraging change.