Charting the Technology Cold War: the balance of loss, U.S. containment strategies and China’s countermeasures

Abstract The Technology Cold War primarily characterized by America’s intensifying technological containment against China and China’s countermeasures has been ongoing since the first Trump administration. It is essentially a negative-sum game operating on the logic of balance of loss, where the containing party attempts to inflict massive loss on the contained party while limiting loss to itself. The U.S. technological containment aims to hinder China’s further technological development by restricting technology, market, and capital access. Breaking this containment requires changing the calculation of the balance of loss. China’s response can be summarized as rule-centric, technology-centric, and statecraft-centric approaches. During Trump’s second term and beyond, the Technology Cold War will likely persist, and insights for resolving the current technological rivalry can be derived from the conclusion of arms race. Establishing mutual boundaries once both sides acknowledge the necessity of coexistence would be the most likely outcome.