System dynamics to analyze scenarios of electric cars insertion in brazilian cities

This article presents the use of system dynamics to analyze the impact of electric cars in Brazilian cities. The developed simulation model can be used to predict the population growth of any Brazilian region based on the logic of stocks and flows. The model also includes an environmental impact analysis, considering CO2 emissions from different vehicle types and fuel sources. The financial model takes into account the cost of recharging electric vehicles during peak and off-peak periods. The importance of expanding the use of EVs in the country to promote sustainable development and reduce harmful emissions is emphasized. The EV20 scenario foresees a cost reduction of around 118 trillion reais with the insertion of electric cars, reducing maintenance costs and saving citizens money. The study confirms that the insertion of electric cars will reduce the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere. The research used computer modeling and variables such as the number of cars and their average CO2 emissions. The model is open and can be expanded to any Brazilian city. Limitations include not measuring the environmental impact of battery use and not analyzing the possibility of using hybrid electric cars. Future work includes addressing these limitations and increasing the analyzed time horizon.