Fear of Violent Crime and Emigration Intentions in the Northern Triangle: Current Developments

Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras—countries that comprise the region known as the Northern Triangle—have experienced a significant increase in emigration to the United States in recent years. A vast literature suggests that a major push factor is the persistence of criminal violence in the region. Using six combined rounds of nationally representative survey data, we examine whether fear of assault or robbery in the neighborhood—a central indicator of fear of violent crime—is directly associated with emigration intentions in these countries, and whether this association has intensified in recent years. We find that the association between fear of assault or robbery in the neighborhood and emigration intentions in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras is positive and significant, after accounting for the impact of victimization and other migration determinants. Moreover, we find that by using data from subsamples of the two most recent years—two combined rounds of survey data—the difference in emigration intentions and the predicted probabilities by fear of assault or robbery are larger than those obtained using the total analytic samples. Beyond victimization, fear of violent crime is a significant dimension of widespread violence that shapes emigration intentions in the region.