High glycosylated serum protein to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratios are predictive of worse acute on chronic liver failure prognoses

Hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) could result in disrupted glucose and lipid homeostasis, but its associations with ACLF is not fully defined. Here, we incorporated biomarkers associated with HBV-ACLF prognoses into a predictive nomogram, and examined its short- and long-term predictive capabilities. Eight hundred sixty-one HBV-ACLF, 20 healthy, and 54 chronic hepatitis B (CH) patients were recruited; the 4 characteristics most strongly associated with HBV-ACLF prognoses (age, glycosylated serum protein [GSP], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-c], international normalized ratio), identified by logistic regression (uni-, multivariate) and machine-learning based analyses, were incorporated into the predictive nomogram. The nomogram was, under receiver operating characteristic and calibration curve analyses, highly accurate in identifying ACLF patients with worse prognoses after 28- and 90-days; it also demonstrated good clinical utility under decision curve analysis. Furthermore, higher GSP/HDL-c (GHR) was associated with worse ACLF prognoses, plus higher 28- and 90-day cumulative risk of death under Kaplan-Meier analysis. Therefore, the nomogram was able to accurately identify ACLF patients, who also had high GHR, at high risk for adverse prognosis; consequently, both glucose and lipid metabolism indicators are equally important for determining ACLF prognoses, and could serve as valuable early diagnostic tools for tailored ACLF interventions.