Methodology for assessing the probability of proper fulfillment of obligations by contractors in road construction

At the stage of public procurement, it is important to identify contractors with poor performance in order to manage the risks of improper fulfillment of contract terms. The article classifies the contractors participating in public procurement under 44-FZ with the type of economic activity road construction on the basis of quality indicator. The methodology for assessing the probability of proper fulfillment of obligations by contractors, which is based on the consistent use of mathematical and statistical models, is proposed and tested on real populations. An integral indicator is constructed, which makes it possible to predict the presumed facts of proper and improper fulfillment of obligations.