Cropping pattern management of potatoes and shallots based on water balance to support climate-resilient agriculture in Solok Regency, West Sumatra

Abstract Potatoes and shallots are the primary horticultural commodities in West Sumatra, particularly in the Lembang Jaya Subdistrict, Danau Kembar Subdistrict, and Lembah Gumanti Subdistrict. In recent years, the cultivated area for these crops and their production levels have declined, primarily due to climate anomalies such as El Niño and La Niña. This study aims to assess the impact of rainfall variability on potatoes and shallots and develop effective cropping pattern strategies for them. This study analyzes rainfall data from 2010 to 2023 and conducts soil water balance calculations. The findings reveal that climate anomalies have differing effects, with pronounced impacts occurring during periods of low rainfall. While rainfall has decreased and fluctuated in the Dry Season, it remains stable in the Rainy Season. A consistent potato-shallot cropping pattern has been observed, with planting initiated at the onset of the Rainy Season. Based on the soil water balance analysis, cropping patterns can be adapted to a potato-shallot-shallot sequence during neutral and La Niña years and a shallot-potato-shallot sequence during El Niño years. This management strategy aims to improve the cropping index and production of horticultural crops and promotes climate-resilient agriculture.