System Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability of Earth Rock Dams Based on Finite Element Strength Reduction Method

To overcome the limitations of rigid body limit equilibrium methods in earth rock dam slope stability analysis, this study develops a system reliability framework using the finite element strength reduction method (FEM-SRM). An elastoplastic finite element model simulates dam construction and impoundment, identifying potential slip pathways. Each pathway, treated as a parallel system of shear-failed elements, is analyzed via the response surface method to derive explicit limit state functions. Reliability indices are computed using an improved first-order second-moment method, while interdependencies are assessed through stepwise equivalent linearization. System reliability is determined using Ditlevsen’s narrow bound method. Applied to a 314 m earth rockfill dam, three critical slip pathways were identified: upstream shallow (reliability index is 6.94), upstream deep (reliability index is 6.87), and downstream deep (reliability index is 7.44), with correlation coefficients between 0.26 and 0.89. The system reliability index (6.81) significantly exceeds the code target (4.2), highlighting the method’s ability to integrate material randomness, stress-strain nonlinearity, and multi-slip interactions. This framework provides a robust probabilistic approach for high earth rock dam stability assessment, enhancing engineering safety evaluations.