Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases.

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Publication Details

Journal
Parasites & Vectors
Published
2025-04-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-025-06767-2
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.76

Funders

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article

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Melissa S. Nolan, Maria Litvinova, John Humphreys, Julie A. Spencer et al.
2 citations
Parasites & Vectors
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
3.76
article

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Melissa S. Nolan, Maria Litvinova, John Humphreys, Julie A. Spencer, Ryan D. Harp, Caterina Scoglio, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Kelly Helm Smith, Zeynep Ertem, Morgan E. Gorris, Lee W. Cohnstaedt, Agnese Zardini, Martha Barnard, Andrew J. Tyre, Nicholas DeFelice, Renata Retkutė, Alessandro Vespignani, Maggie S. J. McCarter, Alexander C. Keyel, S. Kane Moser, Philip M. Armstrong, Augustinas Prusokas, Christopher M. Barker, Marco Ajelli, Michael A. Johansson, Piero Poletti, Randall J. Nett, André Barretto Bruno Wilke, Karen M. Holcomb, Allisandra G. Kummer, Stefano Merler, Alisa Prusokiene, Christopher Lee, Saman Hosseini, J. Erin Staples, Rebecca L. Smith, John Shepard
article en
2 citations

Abstract

The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases.

Parasites & VectorsVol. 18(1)
Albany State University (US), University of Nebraska–Lincoln (US), Binghamton University (US), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US), Northeastern University (US), New York State Department of Health (US), University of Minnesota (US), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), United States Department of Agriculture (US), Wadsworth Center (US), Los Alamos National Laboratory (US), University of South Carolina (US), University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US), Kansas State University (US), Fondazione Bruno Kessler (IT), University of Cambridge (GB), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (US), Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station (US), University at Albany, State University of New York (US), Centre for Innovation in Regulatory Science (GB), Indiana University Bloomington (US), University of California, Davis (US), Newcastle University (GB), Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (US)
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Department of Commerce, Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
3.76
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