Understanding the Gap Between User Expectations and Technology Performance: Case of Heat Pumps

The decarbonization of residential heating is critical to achieving global climate targets, and heat pumps represent a key technology in this transition. However, despite their potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions, users report a gap between perceived and actual performance. This study investigates the factors contributing to this performance gap by applying Expectation-Confirmation Theory (ECT), a cognitive framework that links user expectations, perceived performance, and satisfaction. Using a mixed-methods approach, data was collected from 33 early adopters of heat pump technology in the form of questionnaires, audits, and semi-structured interviews. Quantitative analysis supported the use of ECT to explain the performance gap, displaying moderate correlations between perceived and actual efficiency with comfort, while qualitative findings explored the expectations and satisfaction of users. These findings assist in understanding the performance gap for the 'able to pay' demographic, and explains their satisfaction with the technology despite its underperformance.