Resilience in the face of disruptions: Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 and geopolitical conflicts on global airport connectivity

The COVID-19 pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions have severely disrupted global air transport, significantly impacting airport connectivity. This study analyzes the evolving patterns of global airport connectivity in response to these overlapping crises. On top of using a refined Global Airport Connectivity Index (GACI) applied at quarterly intervals from 2019 to 2024, we develop an international GACI metric to evaluate changes and regional disparities across distinct stages of disruption and recovery. The findings reveal that, while global airport connectivity has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, recovery trajectories varied markedly across regions due to different pandemic response strategies, vaccination timelines, and conflict-related airspace closures. Specifically, the Middle East and North Africa experienced rapid recovery, whereas Northeast Asia and Eastern Europe lagged, hampered by prolonged border restrictions and geopolitical conflicts respectively. Furthermore, the results indicate that medium-sized and emerging international airports played a significant role in the overall market recovery. The study provides important insights into emerging structural shifts in the global air transport network, underscoring the necessity for adaptive, coordinated policies to enhance resilience against future disruptions.