Molecular phylogenetic analyses and ecological niche modeling provide new insights into hazards for the threatened Phrynocephalus persicus-horvathi complex

Abstract The Phrynocephalus persicus species complex comprises a group of agamid lizards that inhabit the steppes and deserts of western Asia. While three species within this complex have been confirmed, the relationships among populations and the boundaries between species remain ambiguous. To elucidate the phylogenetic relationships and distribution boundaries of Phrynocephalus persicus , P. horvathi , and P. ananjevae , we re-evaluated the genetic diversity of a segment of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene. Our analysis identified six monophyletic clades within the complex, five of which exhibited significant genetic divergence ( p distance ⩾ 0.5) at the species level. In this study, we identified 14 haplotypes from the examined populations, with the majority belonging to the P. horvathi-persicus complex. Additionally, we developed a habitat suitability model by integrating nine algorithms for current climate conditions and four primary climate change scenarios based on Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) for the period 2081-2100. This allowed us to estimate potential range shifts for each species. We identified suitable habitat areas under both current conditions (using two parameter sets) and projected future climates for each species. Furthermore, we analyzed the overlap of suitable habitats between P. persicus and P. horvathi in current and future climates. The predictive models indicated a substantial loss of habitat for both P. persicus and P. ananjevae by 2081-2100, underscoring the urgent need for conservation efforts.