Analysis of the Factors Influencing Grain Supply Chain Resilience in China Using Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

As worldwide emergencies occur with growing frequency, including extreme weather, geopolitical conflicts, and pandemics, there is a crucial need to improve grain supply chain resilience to ensure food sustainability during such emergencies. This study investigates the cross-cutting effects of certain key factors potentially influencing grain supply chain resilience, namely infrastructure development, technological innovations, and government aid. It develops a structural equation model of these influencing factors based on Chinese data and applies Bayesian estimation. The results show that government aid is the most critical factor influencing the resilience of the grain supply chain, with a direct impact on grain supply chain resilience of 0.459, an indirect impact through technological innovations of 0.33, and an indirect impact through infrastructure development of 0.026. The study found that the resilience of China’s grain supply chain generally exhibits an upward trend, with a high level of government aid and deficiencies in infrastructure and technological innovation. This paper not only provides new research ideas and methods for the study of grain supply chain resilience, but it also offers policy references for reducing the risk of grain supply deficiencies and improving the sustainability of grain systems.