Dimensions and drivers of social vulnerability to flood risk in Manafwa catchment, Eastern Uganda

Over the past decade, Uganda has experienced a notable increase in extreme meteorological hazards, yet the country lacks a comprehensive disaster management strategy. Despite the critical role it plays in disaster risk reduction, there is a shortage of approaches that contribute to our understanding of social vulnerability within dynamic contextual conditions. This study therefore offers a comprehensive assessment of both flood exposure and social vulnerability among rural households in the Manafwa catchment area of Eastern Uganda. A cross-sectional household study was conducted in March 2019 and September 2021 using a semi-structured questionnaire, key informants’ interviews and focus group discussions. Through multistage sampling technique and utilizing Cochran’s formula, a sample size of 210 households was obtained. An index was constructed employing principal component analysis based on the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI®), originally developed for the United States of America. Eight factors, explaining 80% variance, were identified. The primary components impacting social vulnerability levels are Information and Knowledge, and Demographic and Family Characteristics. Values on the index range from >3 (High) to −1.0 – +1.0 (Low). Most households (88.8%) exhibited moderate to high levels of social vulnerability. Understanding the dominant indicators and areas where high social vulnerability and high exposure converge can support municipalities in designing just and equitable interventions toward flood risk reduction by serving as an input to policymaking, investment strategies and civil protection. Future research could delve deeper into exploring how various locations and complex social variables interact to create varying levels of vulnerability to floods in developing countries.