Space–Time Dynamics of Mortality and Recruitment of Stems and Trees in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Effect of the 2012–2021 Droughts

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) represent about 41.5% of the planet’s tropical forests. The objective of this study was to characterize the annual mortality and recruitment patterns of stems and trees between the years 2012–2021 in a Caatinga remnant in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, through geostatistical modeling, and to associate the drought events recorded in the region with vegetation dynamics. Mortality and recruitment of stems and trees were monitored in 80 permanent plots located in an SDTF remnant, counted year by year between 2012 and 2021. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated to quantify the deficit or excess of rainfall in the evaluated period. The data were then subjected to geostatistical analysis based on the calculation of classical semivariances. As a result, there was a loss of 68.33% of trees and 61.93% of stems in the forest community during 2012–2021, which were associated with the water deficit caused by drought events recorded based on precipitation data and SPI calculation for the region. The Gaussian semivariogram model better represented the spatial variability of mortality and recruitment of stems and trees. An accumulative effect of droughts on increasing mortality rates and reducing recruitment during the study period was observed. The relationship between tree and stem mortality and recruitment rates and drought events highlights the impact of water deficit on vegetation, emphasizing the importance of considering extreme climatic events in the proper management of natural resources.