A Quantitative Analysis of Firefighter Availability and Prescribed Burning in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest

Wildfire activity in the western United States has been on the rise since the mid-1980s, with longer, higher-risk fire seasons projected for the future. Prescribed burning mitigates the risk of extreme wildfire events, but such treatments are currently underutilized. Fire managers have cited lack of firefighter availability as a key barrier to prescribed burning. We use both principal component analysis (PCA) and logistic regression modeling methodologies to investigate whether or not (and if yes, under what conditions) personnel shortages on a given day are associated with lower odds of a prescribed burn occurring in the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest. We utilize the logit model to further assess how personnel availability compares to other potential barriers (e.g., meteorological conditions) in terms of association with odds of a prescribed burn occurring. Our analysis finds that fall and spring days in general have distinct constellations of characteristics. Unavailability of personnel is associated with lower odds of prescribed burning in the fall season, controlling for meteorological conditions. However, in the spring, only fuel moisture is observed to be associated with the odds of prescribed burning. Our findings suggest that if agencies aim to increase prescribed burning to mitigate wildfire risk, workforce decisions should prioritize firefighter availability in the fall.