VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS OF BUILDINGS IN IRAQ: INSIGHTS FROM BUILDING SURVEYS AND DAMAGE SCENARIOS

Seismic risk analysis of building stocks in earthquake prone regions build the entry for any kind of mitigation measures especially in case of fast urbanization in developing countries. Iraq – one of such countries – lies in the northern portion of the Arabian plate, bounded in the North-East by the Bitli-Zagros fold and Thrust belt, where the convergent tectonic boundary between the Eurasia and Arabian plates generates intense earthquake activity. In addition, there are no or only very few accurate studies which map out or provide statistics of the number of buildings in Iraq. This study presents a detailed vulnerability assessment and seismic risk analysis of buildings in Iraq, based on data collected from 4,000 structures through random urbanization methods. Extensive field surveys were conducted to capture key building characteristics, and this data has been digitized to support future research in earthquake engineering, urban planning, and disaster risk management. Each building was classified by vulnerability class and building type using the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) and the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) building taxonomy. These taxonomies enabled a detailed categorization of buildings, helping to assess their expected seismic performance. The validated dataset was subsequently used to develop seismic damage models and conduct risk and loss analyses for the region. Preliminary results from the survey show that 45% of the buildings assessed in Iraq can be classified as non-engineered, primarily constructed using brick masonry and concrete blocks. Various damage scenarios were generated using shake maps from past earthquakes, providing valuable insights into the potential impacts of future seismic events. These scenarios highlight the vulnerabilities of different building types and estimate the economic and human losses that could result from significant earthquakes in Iraq. The findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions, such as retrofitting and emergency preparedness, to reduce seismic risks. In addition to offering insights into potential damage patterns, the digitized data serves as a critical resource for future studies. It supports regional seismic hazard mapping, the improvement of building codes, and the enhancement of emergency response planning. By making this data available, the study promotes collaboration and future research efforts aimed at improving seismic resilience in Iraq and similar regions.