Exploring the Balance Between Ecosystem Services and Economic Benefits via Multi-Objective Land Use Optimization

Excessive human activities associated with rapid industrialization and urbanization have exerted tremendous pressure on limited land resources. Scientific land use planning is essential for attaining sustainable development. This study focuses on multi-objective land use optimization in Xinjiang, China’s largest arid region, targeting the dual goals of maximizing ecosystem services and economic benefits. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) and the future land simulation (FLUS) model are integrated innovatively to explore optimal land use in terms of both quantity and spatial distribution. Four distinct development scenarios are predefined and compared: natural development, ecological preservation, economic development, and sustainable development. The main results are as follows: (1) The fragile ecosystem of Xinjiang has been under tremendous pressure during the past 40 years. The predominant pattern in land use transition was the increase in construction land (+115.66%) and cultivated land (+47.18%) at the expense of grassland (−5.48%) and forest land (−4.15%), both of which hold substantial ecological significance. (2) Among these predefined scenarios, the sustainable development scenario is considered more favorable in the future due to its ability to balance ecological preservation and economic development. All the ecologically valuable lands will have certain degrees of growth, whereas the expansion scale of construction land will be effectively controlled. (3) The lack of high-quality land and the unpredictability of water resources will be the two major obstacles to implementing this sustainable development scenario. To overcome them, the government should provide policy and financial support for restricting construction land expansion, exploiting unused land, and strengthening water conservation. This study contributes to formulating more effective land use strategies under multiple conflicting goals and ultimately achieving sustainable development of the economy and ecology in Xinjiang as well as other similar regions.