Large Megathrust Earthquakes Tend to Sustain an Increasingly Longer Duration Than Expected

Abstract The moment‐duration ( M 0 ‐ T ) scaling law reveals fundamental earthquake physics across various sizes and tectonic settings. However, the validity of the cubic relation ( M 0 ∝ T 3 ) inferred for large (Mw ≥ 7) megathrust events has been recently questioned due to the scarcity of observations and similarities to slow earthquakes. Here, by compiling events over the past 500 years from global subduction zones, we double the number of earthquakes studied (>260) compared to previous studies. A possible scale change is observed, at moment‐magnitude and duration of ∼7.6 and ∼38.1 s, respectively. The new catalog reveals an accelerated decrease of the scaling exponent as a function of magnitude from 2.5 (Mw ≥ 7) to below 1 (Mw > 8.7), indicating increasingly longer durations than expected for larger events. The rapid increase in duration with earthquake size is interpreted as the interplay of seismogenic bounds, trench‐breaching, and subevents, which delays lateral rupture propagation. Our study aids in understanding slow and fast earthquakes.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2025-04-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl112985
Citations
3
Primary Topic
earthquake and tectonic studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.60

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article

Large Megathrust Earthquakes Tend to Sustain an Increasingly Longer Duration Than Expected

Yosuke Aoki, Ling Chen, Shaoyang Li, Yunxiao Cui
3 citations
Geophysical Research Letters
earthquake and tectonic studies
5.60
article

Large Megathrust Earthquakes Tend to Sustain an Increasingly Longer Duration Than Expected

Yosuke Aoki, Ling Chen, Shaoyang Li, Yunxiao Cui
article en
3 citations

Abstract

Abstract The moment‐duration ( M 0 ‐ T ) scaling law reveals fundamental earthquake physics across various sizes and tectonic settings. However, the validity of the cubic relation ( M 0 ∝ T 3 ) inferred for large (Mw ≥ 7) megathrust events has been recently questioned due to the scarcity of observations and similarities to slow earthquakes. Here, by compiling events over the past 500 years from global subduction zones, we double the number of earthquakes studied (>260) compared to previous studies. A possible scale change is observed, at moment‐magnitude and duration of ∼7.6 and ∼38.1 s, respectively. The new catalog reveals an accelerated decrease of the scaling exponent as a function of magnitude from 2.5 (Mw ≥ 7) to below 1 (Mw > 8.7), indicating increasingly longer durations than expected for larger events. The rapid increase in duration with earthquake size is interpreted as the interplay of seismogenic bounds, trench‐breaching, and subevents, which delays lateral rupture propagation. Our study aids in understanding slow and fast earthquakes.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 52(8)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction (JP), Institute of Geology and Geophysics (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), The University of Tokyo (JP)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
earthquake and tectonic studies
5.60
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