Unraveling the Spatial Dynamics and Global Climate Change Response of Prominent Tropical Tree Species in Asia: Symplocos cochinchinensis and Beyond

The tropical tree species Symplocos cochinchinensis plays a crucial role in ecological restoration and serves as a resource for traditional medicine, dyeing, and timber production. Assessing its distribution patterns and adaptive responses to global climate change is essential for maintaining ecosystems and developing conservation strategies. This study elucidates the spatial distribution patterns and projects potential geographic shifts of the widely distributed tropical species S. cochinchinensis under climate change scenarios. A compilation of data from global and local herbaria and databases yielded 5050 occurrence records, covering the majority of its native range in the tropics and subtropics. We modeled the species’ potential habitats using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle for current, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios under high-emission SSP585. Our analysis reveals that sampling bias substantially influences the observed distribution patterns of S. cochinchinensis. Predictions indicate a decrease in barely suitable habitats and an increase in areas deemed highly suitable, suggesting climate change stress and an ecological niche shift towards areas with favorable microclimates with “Precipitation of Wettest Month” (Bio 13) and “Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter” (Bio 8). Our findings reveal S. cochinchinensis’s adaptive resilience, offering valuable insights for developing strategies and conservation management in Southeast Asia, as well as a reference for the response of other common tropical species to climate change.