When do travelers resume railway travel after a major accident? The case of the train collision in Tempi, Greece

The catastrophic 2023 train collision in Tempi, Greece, with numerous casualties, has significantly impacted travelers’ interurban travel choices and undermined their trust in the railway system. In response, this paper examines travelers’ attitudes towards resuming railway travel and explores the factors influencing their decisions, by developing two discrete-time hazard-based models based on data from a revealed preference survey of Greek railway travelers. The models are aimed at capturing travelers’ recovery times: (i) until feeling comfortable resuming railway travel, and (ii) until actually resuming railway travel. Findings suggest that travelers are more likely to return to the Greek railway system more than six months after the accident, with socio-demographics, travel characteristics, and perceived safety before the accident playing crucial roles in recovery time. Interestingly, practical aspects, such as car availability and trip purpose, along with family status in terms of parenthood, are more influential in the actual decision to return to railway travel. On the other hand, travelers’ perceptions and beliefs primarily affect the time until they feel comfortable resuming railway trips. Insights from this paper can be leveraged to inform targeted strategies following railway accidents, aimed at both retaining travelers who are more willing to resume railway travel earlier and facilitating the return of those who are less likely to do so.