Market Access Under a Dynamic Safeguard Mechanism: Evidence From the United States–Japan Trade Agreement

ABSTRACT Access to the Japanese beef market has historically been highly restricted via import quotas and prohibitive tariffs. On January 1, 2020, the United States and Japan implemented the United States–Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA), which aimed to enhance market access by reducing tariffs on a variety of commodities, including beef and beef products. Less than 18 months after USJTA implementation, Japan re‐instituted high tariffs on U.S. beef after agreement safeguard levels were surpassed. In June 2022, USJTA safeguards were revised to rely on a three‐trigger mechanism. We nest a multitreatment‐period difference‐in‐difference design inside an econometric gravity model to investigate the impacts of these institutional regime changes on United States–Japan beef trade. We find that the USJTA substantially expanded access to the Japanese market for U.S. beef—even in light of the safeguard tariffs. In aggregate, the agreement generates an additional $210 million in annual exports for the U.S. beef industry. Even amidst changing attitudes towards the economic appeal of global market integration, incremental efforts to that end can have meaningful impacts for affected stakeholders.