Study of Tourism Economic Resilience Evaluation and Governance Model of Island Cities under Uncertain Environments: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China

In the face of uncertain development scenarios, this study aims to investigate the resilience of urban tourism economies, focusing specifically on island destinations like Hainan Island with limited internal resources. This study assessed urban tourism economic resilience from 2000 to 2020, examining both barriers and governance models. Using a dual approach that includes an evaluation index system and a resilience measurement model, we explored cyclical dynamics and spatial disparities in resilience. The results revealed that: (1) Hainan Island exhibits cyclical dynamic evolution in urban tourism economic resilience, with Sanya and Haikou displaying notably high resilience values of 8.31 and 7.63 in long-term tourism economic resilience, respectively, indicating a northeast–southwest resilience pattern; (2) the Gini coefficient, indicating disparities in resilience, has remained between 0.35 and 0.40, with significant differences observed in the “Hai-Cheng-Wen Integrated Economic Circle” in the north and within cities like Sanya, Lingshui, and Ledong in the south; (3) high resilience constraints coordination, making Sanya and Haikou the cities with the lowest equilibrium entropy values; and (4) theoretical models such as the factor linkage model, the structural adaptability model, and the function matching model are introduced to enhance the resilience governance of Hainan’s tourism economy. Overall, this study provides insights into the resilience mechanisms in island tourism economies, offering a comprehensive framework for evaluating and enhancing resilience. The findings contribute significantly to the body of knowledge on economic resilience in island tourism settings.