Assessing the impact of risk perception on fisheries performance: a structural equation modeling approach in coastal fisheries

Risk perception is crucial for making effective fisheries management strategies. However, this role of risk perception needs to be addressed, particularly in developing countries. Published literature documents such a scenario in the case of Pakistan, which results in a decreased economic contribution to the fisheries sector. Despite its importance, the role of risk perception in managing the fisheries sector is absent in online scientific studies. The present study strives to address this research void by analyzing survey-based data collected through snowball sampling between May 2022 and October 2024. Multivariate analysis, viz., Structure Equation Modeling (SEM), was done through Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) as well as Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS). Cronbach’s alpha values for all constructs were above 0.6, with the highest being 0.962 for policies and regulations risk, confirming data reliability. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) indices, including Comparative Fit Index (CFI) (0.933) and Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) (0.916), indicated a good model fit, with acceptable construct reliability (CR) and Average Variance Extracted (AVE) values. SEM showed that economic risk (estimate = -0.425, p = 0.000), environmental risk (estimate = -0.251, p = 0.007), and consumption risk (estimate = -0.265, p = 0.000) negatively impacted performance, while policies and regulations risk (estimate = -0.113, p = 0.121) and infrastructure and logistics risk (estimate = -0.073, p = 0.411) were insignificant. Risk perception was a significant mediator of performance, with varying effects across Sindh and Balochistan. According to the survey participants, there is a dire need to increase levels of fisheries risk perception, which can be achieved through properly designed capacity-building and incentive-based management techniques. Furthermore, this study discusses the practical implications and limitations.