The Role of Electoral Fraud and Winning–Losing for Mass Affective Polarization: Cross-National Evidence

This study investigates the impact of electoral fraud and election outcomes on mass affective polarization across 149 elections in 48 countries from 1996 to 2020. By analyzing citizens’ assessments of political parties using a like–dislike scale from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and electoral integrity scores from the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (Tufis and Hudson, 2022), this research reveals that manipulative electoral strategies directly contribute to increased mass affective polarization. These findings remain consistent when using alternative measurements of electoral integrity offered by Perceptions of Electoral Integrity data (Garnett et al., 2022). In addition, this study identifies that winning–losing status (i.e., whether an individual voted for the winning party in the previous election) plays a role in amplifying mass affective polarization. I posit that those who voted for the losing party may reconcile their support for the losing party by forming stronger associations with other political parties compared with supporters of the winning party. Furthermore, the research uncovers that the relationship between low electoral integrity and heightened affective polarization is more pronounced among individuals who voted for the winning party. These findings have significant implications for our understanding of mass polarization, democratic legitimacy, and winner–loser status.