Do Agricultural Employment Decisions Influence Poverty Dynamics? Evidence From Rural Nigeria

ABSTRACT: Alleviating poverty and creating sustainable, well-paying jobs for rural households dependent on agriculture remain significant challenges in global policy. In rural Nigeria, many farming households experience shifting levels of poverty. Understanding how employment choices within the agricultural sector influence poverty dynamics is crucial for designing effective policies to alleviate poverty in rural Nigeria. This study examines the effect of agricultural employment choices on poverty dynamics in rural Nigeria, utilizing panel data from the Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS) conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics between 2010 and 2016. Panel probit regression model, and descriptive statistical tools such as contingency table and frequency distribution tables were used to analyze relevant data. The findings indicate that the average age of household heads who transitioned from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors was 53 years in 2012/2013 and 54 years in 2015/2016. In contrast, the average age of household heads remaining in agriculture was 49 years in 2012/2013, rising to 54 years by 2015/2016. The analysis revealed that 61% of chronically poor households were permanently engaged in agriculture, while 66% of transitorily non-poor households did not transition out of agriculture. The Panel Probit Regression model identified a positive relationship between agricultural employment and factors such as age, marital status, household size, market distance, farm size, and residing in the North East, North West, and South East regions with poverty. Conversely, access to information and communication technology (ICT), higher asset value, and living in the South West reduced the likelihood of rural farming households falling into poverty. These results highlight the intricate relationship between agricultural employment and poverty, emphasizing the need for targeted policies to address regional disparities and support transitions to more diversified livelihoods. The study recommends increased government and development community investments in education, heightened family planning awareness, and strategies for asset accumulation among farming households to build resilience and improve economic outcomes.