SCENARIO-BASED SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF SCHOOL BUILDINGS IN THE SKOPJE AREA, NORTH MACEDONIA

The Republic of North Macedonia (RNM) is characterized by a moderate to high seismic hazard. Combined with the vulnerability of the existing building stock, the impact of earthquakes continues to be substantial. The implementation of risk mitigation strategies at regional or national levels includes the seismic assessment of a wide range of buildings. Given the significant social and economic impact of school buildings, especially in the City of Skopje, a scenario-based seismic risk assessment of school buildings in this area is presented here. RNM is divided into 8 regions and 80 municipalities (urban and rural), 10 of which constitute the City of Skopje, the country’s capital. Out of approximately 1119 primary and secondary school buildings, 193 are located in the City of Skopje, serving 81,993 students and 8,961 teaching and administrative staff, according to official data from the beginning of the 2022/23 school year. The ground motion field, representing the shaking intensity in the study area, is defined using the characteristics of the seismic rupture from the July 26, 1963 Skopje earthquake (magnitude 6.1, hypocentral depth 5 km, epicentral intensity IX). The exposure model is developed by utilizing structural attributes from previous studies and current replacement cost estimates. For buildings where structural typology data is unavailable, taxonomies are assigned with weighted values based on statistical analysis and expert judgment. Lastly, for the vulnerability component, taxonomy strings from the GEM vulnerability database are applied through a mapping scheme. The analysis is carried out using the OpenQuake Engine, and the results are ultimately presented in terms of damages and losses.