Impact of change in insomnia on change in pandemic paranoia: a longitudinal moderated-mediation model in an international sample

The impact of mistrust of others during a pandemic is an important consideration for public health interventions. Pandemic paranoia is a particular form of persecutory thinking characterised by mistrust and suspicion towards other people specifically due to a pandemic. Pandemic paranoia is heightened among those with a persecutory thinking tendency. We examined the longitudinal relationship between insomnia and pandemic paranoia, with anxiety, depression, and worry as mediators and persecutory thinking as moderator. A longitudinal online survey design was utilized involving an international sample (N = 715) across two timepoints, 12 weeks apart. A moderated mediation model was tested, assessing the effect of change in insomnia on change in pandemic paranoia with changes in anxiety, depression and worry as mediators. The effect of persecutory thinking as a moderator was then tested on the above paths in relation to insomnia. Changes in insomnia predicted changes in pandemic paranoia. Change in anxiety was a significant mediator of insomnia's effects on pandemic paranoia: this indirect pathway was moderated by persecutory thinking. Changes in worry and depression were not significant mediators. Our findings indicate that insomnia influences pandemic paranoia, indirectly through anxiety; persecutory thinking plays a consequential role in these relationships. These findings suggest that special attention should be given to mitigation efforts during pandemics to promote sleep health in individuals with pre-existing vulnerabilities, such as persecutory thinking styles.