The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Mortality from Non-Communicable Diseases: Evidence from Azerbaijan

The empirical findings of this study suggest a significant long-term relationship between the probability of mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among individuals aged 30–70 in Azerbaijan and key economic and social indicators, including Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Waged Employment, Human Development Index, and out-of-pocket health expenditures. The Error Correction Model coefficient (−0.724701) implies that the system adjusts back to equilibrium at a rate of 72.47% per period, highlighting a strong corrective mechanism. Additionally, in the short run, GDP, HDI, wage employment, and out-of-pocket health expenditures significantly influence mortality rates. The model’s statistical diagnostics confirm its robustness, and the results align with economic theory, reinforcing their validity and policy relevance. According to the conclusion of this research, we suggest the enhancement of the HDI and Employment, control out-of-pocket expenditures, and increase Government Healthcare Spending to significantly reduce mortality rates. This study emphasizes that enhancing social determinants like the HDI, Waged Employment, and accessible healthcare services is crucial for reducing mortality rates of NCDs. While Azerbaijan’s economic growth has improved living standards, further efforts are necessary to improve healthcare investments and reduce inequalities in health outcomes.