Climate Change Impacts in Eastern Mediterranean Sea: Trends and Extremes

Abstract This study examines the impacts of climate change on Eastern Mediterranean Sea coastal environment using long-term in situ data. Specifically, it explores three decades of previously inaccessible data on surface waves and sea surface temperature, obtained from two buoys moored off the Israeli coastline, augmented with data from several coastline temperature sensors, and sea level measurements. Our findings reveal a moderate increase in sea surface temperature of 2.65 °C per century, contradicting the current local scientific consensus of faster warming trends, and showing that the reanalysis models grossly overestimate the multiannual trends while underestimating the actual temperature values. We found alteration in the seasonal cooling-warming cycles, with shrinking transitional season periods that are replaced by prolonged summer and winter periods. Marine heatwaves have become more frequent and severe, which may result in significant ecological impacts. Maritime storm activity was observed to intensify, with a sharp increase in storms’ intensity during the early 2000s. The study also documented a rise in the occurrence of Rogue waves, including a notable 11.5-m wave near Haifa in February 2015. The sea level rise trend was found to be 2.3 mm per year. In summary, our study demonstrates the intensification in the occurrence of extreme ocean weather events which may increasingly threaten marine life in the Levant coastal zone.