Energy Supply Shock on European Stock Markets: Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine War

This study empirically investigates the impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war on the performance of brown and green stocks in Europe. Analyzing stocks listed on exchanges in 25 European countries, we find that, prior to this war, stocks of more energy-dependent firms (brown stocks) yielded higher returns compared to those of less energy-dependent firms (green stocks). However, after the unexpected Russian invasion, brown stocks underperformed relative to green stocks. As the conflict reached a stalemate and energy supplies were restored, brown stocks regained their advantage over green stocks. Additionally, brown stocks exhibited greater volatility following the invasion. Utilizing various factor models, we identify a pronounced negative energy risk premium during the initial Russia–Ukraine war outbreak period. This study highlights the dynamic stock market responses to energy supply and regulatory changes in Europe, reflecting the market’s evolving perception of energy supply risks and regulatory risks linked to the transition towards a net-zero economy.